5 topics that draw attention in US elections
The November 8 elections in the United States will have a huge impact on the course of the nation, as well as the fate of the individual and the ruling party in the White House.
The current president, Joe Biden, is not at the polls - midterm elections decide who controls Congress, as well as state legislatures and governor's offices. But the elections will give voters the opportunity to indirectly express their opinions about his presidency and the current direction of the country.
With the US economy struggling and voters worried about violence and visa-free immigration, the verdict could be harsh for the current president. Furthermore, the outcome will influence the playing field of the 2024 presidential campaign and especially the chances of Donald Trump running again.
Here are five reasons why these elections are so important:
1. Abortion rights or restrictions
Congressional reformulation can directly influence the day-to-day lives of citizens across the country. Abortion is a clear example.
In June, the Supreme Court overturned constitutionally protected abortion rights. Both parties have already proposed new national laws if they gain control of Congress in these elections.
Democrats have vowed to uphold women's rights to abortion, while Republicans have proposed a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
At the state level, the aftermath of important governors and local disputes on traditional political battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan could mean more restrictions on abortion are imposed there.
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Who gains control of Congress and who gains power in states will also impact what other policies are focused on besides abortion.
If Republicans have more power, expect issues of immigration, religious rights and fighting violent crime to be a priority.
For Democrats, the environment, health care, the right to vote and gun control will remain high on the agenda.
2. The Republicans' turn to investigate the Democrats
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However, the midterm elections will have an impact far beyond public policy circles.
Controlling Congress means having the power to initiate investigative committees.
For two years, Democrats limited the amount of scrutiny the White House faced and made the January 6 attack on the US Capitol in 2021 a main focus.
They interviewed hundreds of people and held prime-time hearings on what happened that day, in an attempt to find out what the Trump White House knew in advance and how it responded. They are expected to publish a report before the end of the year.
But all that seems about to change. Republicans, already anticipating control of the House of Representatives, say they will close the Jan. 6 committee and start a hearing on Joe Biden's son Hunter's trade ties to China.
They also want to look at the Biden administration's immigration policies, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the origins of the coronavirus pandemic in China.
If Republicans also take control of the US Senate, the process to approve Biden's chosen people to work in federal courts and major government agencies is expected to stall.
3. Joe Biden's future
Midterm elections are typically considered a referendum regarding the first two years of a presidential term - with the ruling party often taking a beating.
Biden's approval ratings have been bad for more than a year.
And high inflation and concerns about the economy reasserted themselves in the final stretch of the campaign, leaving Democrats with an uphill battle to keep both houses of Congress.
In his first two years as president, Biden pushed through new laws on climate change, gun control, investment in infrastructure and child poverty, despite his narrow majority in Congress.
If one of those chambers turns to Republicans, however, they would have the power to prevent Democratic bills from passing Congress, creating a stalemate.
Biden's approval ratings have been bad for over a year
A bad night for Democrats would quickly be interpreted as a sign of Biden's political weakness — and could renew calls for Biden to step aside from another Democrat when the 2024 presidential campaign season begins.
The president and his aides insist he will seek re-election, however — and removing an incumbent president in a primary election (when candidates from the same party vie for the nomination) has happened only once in the modern political era.
4. Will Trump run for president again ?
Unlike recently defeated presidents, Trump has not kept politics silent.
He still seems to have an interest in returning to the White House in 2024 - and the midterm elections could make or break his hopes. While he's not on the ballot, dozens of his chosen candidates are running high-profile races across the US.
The former president has managed to elevate some Senate candidates, such as former football player Herschel Walker in Georgia, television doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and populist author JD Vance in Ohio, over more traditional Republican politicians, despite objections from older Republican leaders.
If they win, it could prove that their political instincts are sharp - and that their kind of conservative politics has national appeal. But if the Republicans fail in Congress, and because of the failure of Trump's handpicked unconventional candidates, the former president can be blamed.
Such an outcome would raise the hopes of Trump's presidential rivals within the party. Both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott are running for re-election in November and can use the results as a springboard for their own campaign to win the Republican nomination in 2024.
5. The future of ' election deniers '
The 2022 midterm elections will be the first federal elections since the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, when Trump supporters tried to prevent Joe Biden's election victory from being certified.
Far from being punished by the turmoil, Trump continued to question the results of that election and actively supported Republican candidates who say Trump's victory was stolen from them.
Many of these candidates, such as secretary of state nominees Mark Finchem in Arizona and Jim Marchant in Nevada and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, are running for office where they will have at least some control over their state's electoral systems ahead of the election. presidential 2024.
These politicians, if elected, may refuse to certify their state's election results in a close election.
They may also file lawsuits against localities based on allegations of electoral corruption, or enact new rules and regulations restricting certain methods of voting, such as by mail or through the ballot box.
In 2020, under pressure from Trump to reverse some of the results, Republican officeholders in several states refused to give in to his demands.
Two years from now, if a similarly contested election occurs, the outcome of these types of challenges could be quite different.
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