Trump voters still threatening to start US civil war
BBC US Special Correspondent Katty Kay talking to Steve Slaton at her Arizona store
The November 8 midterm elections to the US Congress, the first national vote since Trump supporters stormed Capitol Hill nearly two years ago, are leaving many Americans on edge.
Karen and Steve don't want to take up arms. But if the Republicans lose, this elderly couple from Arizona says civil war looms and, yes, they will fight.
They have already discussed this among themselves and believe that taking up arms is the best option.
It was at this point that our conversation got a little somber, and my faith in the strength of American democracy was a little shaken.
It was one of the first stops I made on a month-long road trip across the US in the summer—a journey to understand why the upcoming election feels so important, maybe even a little sinister.
The couple was charming as a host. Both were funny and generous. They took me on a tour of their extensive stash of Trump's extravagant merchandise and explained that, yes, there are indeed people who pay $100 for a life-size cardboard doll of the former president dressed as Rambo to place in the middle of the room.
A lot of people, in fact. Trump as Rambo is one of the store's best-selling items.
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We talked about history, economics and even abortion. But the only time things got tense was when I questioned their belief that the 2020 election had been stolen.
Is it not possible, I asked, that millions of Americans simply didn't like President Trump and that's why Joe Biden won the election?
It was Karen who snapped back, "If you're a crazy liberal, we're just not interested. Trump. The US loves Trump."
The BBC is not "fake news", but I let it go. The idea of war, however, required clarification.
"It's going to start small, it's going to be like city against city, state against state," said Steve, who had clearly thought about it.
People have been tossing this idea of a second American civil war for a few years now, since the 2020 election, since the violent Capitol invasion on January 6, 2021.
I find it hard to believe—perhaps I lack imagination—but the idea of Americans going to war over a lost election still seems implausible.
But that's Steve's take on what happened last time: "When Lincoln won, he provoked the South."
This is not the only view there is on the origins of the American Civil War, but it was not the time for historical debate; it is the gift that needs attention.
When I said goodbye to the Slatons, Steve gave me a warning. He had a typical friendly American smile on his face, but it was still scary.
"This can get really nasty," he said.
How unpleasant was what I was trying to find out.
Some believe divisions between Democrats and Republicans could lead to another US civil war.
The midterm elections
Americans vote for control of Congress every two years. Elections that fall in years when they do not vote for president are called midterm elections.
Because the White House is not up for grabs, midterm legislative elections generally don't get much attention — and turnout hovers around 40%, lower than the 50-60% who vote in presidential elections. But this year looks different.
This is the first national election since the invasion of the Capitol — and it will test whether the United States is capable of holding an election without violence. To be clear, the war speech of Americans like the Slatons is not normal pre-election rhetoric.
In two and a half decades in the US, I've covered 10 election cycles in the country, and I've never heard voters talk about politics in such a violent way.
Karen and Steve's views are not marginal either. The belief that the 2020 election was stolen has infiltrated like a virus that now infects the entire democratic process.
Karen says she will fight for what she believes in
Polls taken since the election suggest that about 70% of Republicans believe Joe Biden is not the legitimate president. This represents about a third of the American electorate, or more than 50 million people.
This summer, on a tour of Arizona, Wyoming, Georgia and Pennsylvania, I spoke to dozens of voters who are convinced that Joe Biden is not the legitimate president of the United States.
If you thought an election was stolen from you, you would be angry too. The problem is that there is no evidence to support the accusations that the election was stolen.
Trump's lawyers have filed more than 60 lawsuits alleging election fraud. All but one were closed for lack of evidence.
Some of the lawsuits have even been reviewed by Trump-appointed judges, and they too have rejected the cases.
Top Republican election officials in key states such as Arizona and Georgia also said the election process was fair and accurate.
There is no evidence of fraud that would nullify Joe Biden's victory.
This did not, however, stop the virus of the fraud conspiracy from spreading. Trump may have started it, but now it has spread across the country and taken on a life of its own.
It's different from political issues like gun ownership or taxes. People also have strong convictions about these issues—Steve and Karen Slaton certainly did. But disagreements on these issues are based on facts that both sides can debate.
The "stolen election" is not a debatable topic. There are no facts on this side of the argument.
In that sense, it's more like an unshakable belief system. And from my interviews, I'm not sure the faithful would change their minds, even if Trump himself were to suddenly say that Biden won fairly and honestly.
'I wasn't scared, I was angry'
The impact of this conspiracy on the US electoral system was clear to me in Georgia, in the Paulding County election offices, where officials prepare for midterm elections with some trepidation.
Deirdre Holden is a civil servant who serves as an election supervisor and voter registration. She is responsible for the mechanics of the election, ensuring polling centers run smoothly, ballots are collected safely and counted accurately.
Holden doesn't cry easily, but when she rereads the letter with the threat she received after the 2020 election, she gasps, for just a second.
"This election is rigged," the text reads. (Deirdre is exceptionally polite, she has that wonderful southern kindness, and she spared me the profanity contained in the text.)
"Detonations are going to occur at every polling place in this county. No one at those polling places will be spared. If you think we're bluffing, try it. You've been warned. We'll finish you all." Deirdre drops the letter and wipes her eyes.
If I got this message, I would be scared to go to work, but what I'm seeing is not fear, it's anger.
"I was never scared. I was angry. Angry because someone tries to threaten us, threaten people who just want to vote. That didn't sit well with me," says Deirdre.
Deirdre Holden Received Threats From Disgruntled Voters After 2020 Election
When his Paulding County office (which, by the way, voted for Trump, although that shouldn't really matter) received this threat after the 2020 election, it passed it on to the FBI.
The agents advised Deirdre to start parking her car in front of the office window; that would help limit the impact of an explosion's force, they explained.
She was not the only election official to be threatened after that vote.
The special committee investigating the Capitol riot interviewed several witnesses who were threatened, along with their families.
After Al Schmidt, the Republican city commissioner-elect for the city of Philadelphia, defended the integrity of the election and confirmed Biden's victory, he received a text message that read: "You lied. [You are] a traitor. Maybe 75 cuts and 20 bullets." arrive soon."
The Brennan Center for Public Justice analyzed the aftermath of the 2020 election and concluded that threats against election officials (elected to office or not) have reached unprecedented levels.
Their findings showed that one in three election officials said they did not feel safe doing their jobs. Not surprisingly, a large number have resigned after 2020.
The question is why so much distrust and anger now? Americans have been polarized for decades — and this isn't the first conspiracy theory to take hold here.
But we had never witnessed a Capitol storming before, not so many threats to election officials, not so much attention paid to trying to change electoral rules.
The answer, as most political analysts suggest, is a confluence of events that allowed the election-denial conspiracy to spread, thus weakening the entire system.
Trump warned that there would be a rigging in the 2020 elections before they are held, without providing any evidence to back up his claim.
First, Trump started saying that they would manipulate the vote against him, long before the election took place. He undermined confidence in the election before a single vote was cast in the polls.
Afterwards, the electoral rules changed in 2020 to adapt to the restrictions imposed by the covid-19 pandemic.
Those contesting the election result say these changes, which included more early voting and more votes by mail, left the system open to widespread fraud (although there is no evidence of this).
The Brennan center also points to the impact of social media.
"In 2020, political actors have intensified lies about electoral processes, often on social media," says the institution's report.
"This disinformation has indelibly changed the lives and careers of election officials."
Nearly 80%, according to the report, say the increase in misinformation has made their job more difficult. More than half believe it made him more dangerous.
"People just lost confidence. And that's what breaks my heart," says election worker Deirdre Holden.
And, like the Slatons, she says goodbye to me with a warning—November's midterms are going to be worse.
Confidence in elections is waning
Deirdre is nonpartisan. I spent a few hours with her and I can honestly say I have no idea how she votes. It's exactly how it should be.
The holding of democratic elections must be in the hands of officials who have no bias.
The people who organize the vote, count the votes and certify the results must not introduce their own political views into the process. When they do that, trust is lost.
And in that sense, the controversy over the 2020 election has shown that the American system is exceptionally vulnerable.
The American electoral system is the only one in the West that depends on elected officials, that is, they answer to one party.
The US is the only Western democracy in which top election officials are not civil servants. At the state level, it is the position of secretary of state that administers the election. And that person is elected, as a Democrat or a Republican.
As of November this year, there are about 200 Republican candidates who say they believe the 2020 election was stolen.
In at least seven states, there are candidates who deny the results of the polls and who can assume positions with a direct impact on the voting systems.
In a close election in 2024, these people could be instrumental in deciding who wins the race for the White House.
One such critical position is that of a state's secretary of state.
In the past, it was a position that received very little attention in electoral campaigns, it was certainly not a position that would attract the attention of the national and even international press.
So the fact that this summer I flew over the desert in a private plane to interview Arizona's candidate for secretary of state is a telling indication of how different this midterm election is.
In a world where election results are contested, the secretary of state suddenly becomes very important. It has the ability to change how people can vote and even change the rules around counting votes.
Trump clearly understands the importance of this role. On January 2, 2021, he called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and urged the Republican to "find" him 11,780 additional votes in order to win in the state.
Raffensperger denied Trump's request. Now, the former president wants to have allies as secretary of state, so that if he runs in 2024, he can count on them to help him.
On the eve of the midterm elections, money and attention from both parties are being poured into campaigns for secretary of state in at least six key states.
That's why I spent the day, and a terribly turbulent plane ride, with Mark Finchem. And it's also why he had a private jet at his disposal in the first place.
Joe Biden won Arizona by just 10,000 votes. Finchem is a staunch election result denier, who believes Trump was robbed of the state, and would like to overturn the 2020 vote.
If elected in November, he plans to ban voting by mail (preferred option by 80% of Arizona voters), ban early voting and end electronic voting machines.
All this until 2024, when the next presidential election takes place. He says he just wants to eliminate any possibility of fraud.
His critics say that Finchem is a threat to democracy, that he wants to control the voting process in a way that could tip in favor of the Republicans.
A Republican state representative has even withdrawn his support for Finchem and is backing his Democratic opponent in the race.
Finchem has a disarming mix of charm and vehemence.
He told me he doesn't believe the Democrats can win in Arizona, not in 2020, not in 2022, not in 2024. He is running against Democrat Adrian Fontes and seems well positioned to win the race.
In September, a poll carried out by OH Predictive Insights showed Finchem ahead of Fontes, with 40% of the voting intentions, against 35% of the opponent.
So a man who says the last election was rigged and who also doesn't believe the Republicans can lose in the state could end up in charge of the election. It's not hard to see where this might go.
If Finchem and other candidates like him across the country change the voting system so that it's nearly impossible to lose, then in 2024, Democrats, with some reason, won't trust the results either.
They will say they stole their victory. And it won't take many election cycles until no one trusts the results of US polls.
As he traveled thousands of miles across the country, it became clear that both sides believe America's democracy is in jeopardy, for very different reasons. Each side blames the other.
There is no obvious solution to this spiral of mistrust. Across the country, I heard reports of anger, anxiety, and even violence.
We are watching these midterm elections very closely, in part because of the January 6th invasion of the Capitol and in part because they will help lay the groundwork for whether Trump will run again.
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