US elections: the 3 states that will define who will control the Senate
There are still uncertain battles that will define who will control Congress.
Republicans appear to be on the cusp of regaining a majority in the US House of Representatives, but definitive control of Congress is still uncertain and will depend on three battles with results still open: Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.
Still awaiting many official results after this week's elections, the Republican Party is projected to regain control of the House of Representatives.
But, as President Joe Biden put it, there was no "giant red wave," as not only previous polls had predicted, but also the state of the country's economy and the president's low popularity.
According to the US network CBS, Republicans only need to win five seats that are now in the hands of Democrats to regain a majority in the House of Representatives.
The 3 Decisive Sweepstakes for Control of the Senate
- Georgia will be decided in the second round. The contest between Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock was very fierce, with neither reaching the 50% required vote. December 6th is the election date.
- In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly is slightly ahead of Blake Masters, who is supported by Donald Trump. But there is still a large percentage of votes to be counted.
- In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead of Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, who is defending her current seat.
In the Senate there is currently a 50-50 tie which is broken by Vice President Kamala Harris, who has the right to vote when this situation arises. Therefore, any change can tip this balance.
Democrats have shown relief that maintaining control of the Senate would be a great result. For example, John Fetterman won his fight for the State of Pennsylvania, which is an important victory in regaining a position that was in the hands of the Republicans.
President Joe Biden himself admitted on Wednesday that he felt "relieved" to see the results, which should have been worse for his party.
"In the end, there was no giant red wave," he said of the sweeping Republican victory that some had hoped for.
"While a single result does not mark an election, Pennsylvania raises the spirits of Democrats considerably," said John Sudworth, the BBC's US correspondent, after learning of the Pennsylvania result.
"It's definitely not a red wave, that's for sure," admitted Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on television.
John Fetterman gives Democrats a key Senate win
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Analysis by Anthony Zurcher, the BBC's US correspondent.
At least for now, in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans are doing well, but not well enough to win.
In the races for governors, Republicans won in Florida, Texas and Georgia, but two other state governments went to Democrats.
Republicans only need five seats in the House of Representatives to win a majority, and they appear to be close.
But they're not winning all the tight contests, and they're not getting resounding, surprising victories.
In the Senate, the results are even more uncertain. The Republicans won states where they had the upper hand, but the Democrats had the upper hand where they expected. In addition, they won a crucial seat in Pennsylvania.
The outcome of the as-yet-decided races—Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona—will largely determine the final perception of these elections.
Ron DeSantis was re-elected as governor of Florida
A referendum on Biden
Both houses of Congress were under Democratic control for the first two years of President Biden's term.
If there is finally a change in party control, it would affect Biden's agenda, which could see his initiatives blocked.
Typically, midterm elections are a referendum on the president's management and are often negative for the party that controls the White House.
Biden has low approval ratings (around 45%) and inflation—the highest in 40 years—plays against the ruling party.
But early exit polls also showed that abortion was the most important issue for 3 in 10 voters. This may have benefited the Democrats, after the decision of the US Supreme Court of Justice – with a conservative majority – to eliminate the constitutional right to terminate a pregnancy across the country.
In the White House there is an atmosphere of "emotion" with the results, according to the CBS network.
"Democracy has been put to the test in recent years, but with their votes the American people have spoken," Biden said on Wednesday, who said he was open to "good ideas" for the country and talking to Republicans.
Final results can take time — there are parts of the country where vote counting continues and in many states it can take days, especially for the more even races.
what do we know so far
- There has been no "red wave" so far in favor of the Republicans, something that some predicted
- The House of Representatives will return to Republican control, according to projections
- Given Biden's low popularity and high inflation, Democrats are holding back damage, according to the results that are known so far.
- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who could be Donald Trump's Republican rival in the White House in 2024, has won a clear victory for re-election.
- Florida and Miami-Dade County, a traditional Democratic stronghold, is now confirmed as a Republican stronghold
- Democrat John Fetterman is the winner in the Pennsylvania Senate race, one of the main battles for control of the Senate.
- The most decisive fights are still too uncertain to project winners, especially in the Senate, where there is a 50-50 balance.
- There are already several milestones in the election: the first openly lesbian governor in history, Maura Healey (Massachusetts), and the first victory of someone from Gen Z among deputies - Maxwell Frost (Florida), of Cuban origin.
what we still don't know
- Senate control is uncertain and it will take time for an outcome. Results from crucial races in Nevada and Arizona could take a few days. In the case of Georgia, there will be a new election on December 6 because neither of the two main candidates achieved 50% of the vote.
- The dimension of the republican triumph in the Chamber of Deputies. The margin, if confirmed the change of command, is important for his eventual opposition to Biden
- Whether Donald Trump can really be considered a winner or a loser despite not being at the polls. Some of the Republicans he supported won, but others lost, so the final balance remains open.
- How Joe Biden exits the election, which despite his low popularity could see himself strengthened by having contained damages
Even a small Republican majority in Congress closes doors to Biden initiatives
Analysis by Anthony Zurcher, the BBC's US correspondent
It seems likely that Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives when the new Congress takes office early next year.
If so, the question is how big is the majority they could have.
Even if Republicans end up with only a slim majority in the House, the door will be closed on Joe Biden's legislative agenda for the next two years. This will generate a level of intense congressional oversight that the president has been avoiding until now.
While a major Republican victory was expected in the midterm elections, Democrats are holding out and hope to retain control of the Senate.
What would it mean to have a divided government?
A split government refers to a situation where one or both houses of the US Congress are controlled by a party that opposes the incumbent president, something that looks like it could happen from this election.
This type of government has been common in the country since the 1970s. The most recent was during the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency, when Democrats controlled the House.
Some people support split government because it means each political party can keep an eye on the other, for example, checking unwanted spending measures or preventing certain bills from becoming law.
In addition, divided chambers can force lawmakers to write laws that have a broader base of support, making them more difficult to undo when power changes hands. In this situation, cooperation generates political stability.
But when parties are polarized in their positions, a divided government can make it impossible for a party to pass new laws, leading to an impasse.
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