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Monday, March 31, 2014

François Hollande poised to react to election blow

French President François Hollande is expected to launch a rapid shake-up of his Socialist government following a second defeat in local elections on Sunday, with big gains for the main opposition UMP party and far-right National Front.
But in a relief for the two main parties, the FN fell short of the scale of victory it had hoped for after making a big breakthrough in the first round of voting last Sunday.
The main winner of the night was the centre-right UMP, party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy. It was set to gain more than 100 municipalities, capturing a majority of larger towns from the ruling party, including Toulouse, Reims, Angers and St Etienne.
According to one exit poll, the UMP and its allies won 49 per cent of the vote in all towns larger than 3,500 inhabitants, against 42 per cent for the Socialists and other parties of the left, and 9 per cent for the FN.
Jean-François Copé, head of the UMP, said the results represented a "blue wave" against Mr Hollande's government, demanding that the president "absolutely must change policy".
Mr Hollande has signalled he will move as early as Monday to shake up his administration in an attempt to put the reverse behind him, with prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, both under threat of replacement.
Dursun Aydemir | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Mr Ayrault said the results were a defeat for the government, which needed to be strengthened. He accepted his "full share" of responsibility, adding: "The message is clear and must be plainly understood."
But ministers have indicated there will be no fundamental change in Mr Hollande's recent promise to cut the tax burden on business and shave €50bn from public spending - both key commitments to France's eurozone partners aimed at tackling insipid growth and still-rising unemployment.
The FN, led by Marine Le Pen, won about 10 towns to add to the mayor's seat it won outright last Sunday, including the southern towns of Fréjus and in Béziers and a major suburb of Marseille. It was the best result for the FN since it won three towns in 1995, giving it 1,200 local councillors nationwide.
But it failed to win the cities of Perpignan and Avignon in the south and Forbach in the north, where ran high-profile candidates who each came first in the first round.
More from the Financial Times:
Residents in these towns appear to have voted tactically to defeat the party. Nevertheless, the FN has been boosted as it now moves on to try to beat both the UMP and the Socialists in the European parliamentary elections at the end of May.
In a rearguard battle, the Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo easily won the key prize of Paris, against Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet of the UMP. The Socialists also held on to Strasbourg.
Mr Hollande, burdened by record low personal approval ratings, said after the first-round results that "lessons would be drawn".
The crucial decision is whether to replace Mr Ayrault. Manuel Valls, the popular interior minister, is widely seen as Mr Ayrault's most likely successor, but he is opposed by many on the left and the Greens, a Socialist coalition partner that Mr Hollande to date has been keen to keep inside the government.
Is the French National Front a serious political contender?
Bruno Jeanbart, director of political studies and opinion polls at Opinionway, discusses whether any big wins the National Front may gain in this weekend¿s French local elections will be repeated on a national scale.
Other potential replacements include Laurent Fabius, the veteran foreign minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the defence minister, and Bertrand Delanoë, the outgoing mayor of Paris.
Mr Moscovici may also be moved in a widely anticipated shake-up at Bercy, the hulking finance ministry that houses seven ministers, including Arnaud Montebourg, the outspoken leftist in charge of industry.
A revamped government will have the immediate task of rallying behind Mr Hollande's "responsibility pact", a deal with business to reduce labour costs and taxes in return for job creation. Along with details of the controversial spending cuts plan, the pact is due to be completed and put to a vote of confidence in parliament next month.
Among those consulted recently by Mr Hollande on the situation is Pascal Lamy, former head of the World Trade Organisation and a Socialist party member. But he has played down speculation that he might join the government.

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