What the U.S. Must Do Now to Advance
After a brutally disappointing tie Sunday night, the United States faces a dizzying array of possibilities heading into its final match in the World Cup’s group stage. Here are the basic facts to keep in mind:
The United States advances so long as one of three things happen: 1) It beats Germany; 2) It ties Germany; 3) Ghana and Portugal tie in their match. No, avoiding a loss to Germany will not be easy. But the United States has shown it belongs in this tough World Cup group, and Germany looked mortal in its 2-2 tie against Ghana (which the United States beat, 2-1).
Intriguingly, the United States-Germany match will also feature something of a perverse incentive. If the two teams play a draw, they are both likely to be very happy. Germany would then win the group, and the United States would finish second, thus qualifying for the next round. If the United States and Germany are indeed tied well into the second half, it’s not hard to imagine the pace of play slowing down a bit.
In the event of a United States loss, it would automatically advance if Ghana and Portugal tied. The United States would then end group play with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss, while Ghana and Portugal would each have 2 draws and 1 loss.
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The situation is more complicated if the United States loses and Ghana and Portugal do not tie. The United States will then be rooting for a Portugal win. Portugal lost its first match — 4-0, to Germany — which leaves it in a terrible position for tiebreakers (and in this scenario, the United States and Portugal would both be 1-1-1). To advance, Portugal needs a combination of results that causes its goal differential (now -4) to be better than the Americans’ differential (now +1).
Ghana, on the other hand, lost its first match by only 2-1. If Ghana wins and the United States loses, the tiebreaker could be very close. The first tiebreaker is goal differential. If Ghana beats Portugal by more than one goal, it advances. Similarly, if the United States loses to Germany by more than one goal, Ghana advances. But if both are one-goal matches, the next tiebreaker will kick in: total goals scored.
Heading into the final match, the United States has four goals and Ghana has three. Importantly, the United States wins the third tiebreaker against Ghana: head-to-head result. So long as the United States does not lose the second tiebreaker, it will advance. In concrete terms: If Ghana wins by one goal and the United States loses by one goal, the United States will advance so long as it scores more goals than Ghana on Thursday, as many goals as Ghana or one fewer goal than Ghana. If the United States scores two fewer in this situation, Ghana will advance.
All in all, the last-minute goal the United States allowed to Portugal was damaging, but the United States still has multiple ways to advance.
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