After Obama … the 2016 White House race begins
Even by the high-octane standards of US politics, it was a breathtakingly abrupt change of gear. One hour and 50 minutes after polling closed in the most expensive congressional election in history, jostling broke out instead for the next contest: the race for the White House in 2016.
The first politician to break the midterm spell last Tuesday – the Republican presidential hopeful Rand Paul – was in no mood for subtlety. Asked by Fox News what he thought about the victory, minutes earlier, of his fellow Kentucky senator Mitch McConnell over the Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, it took him only 14 words to identify another target entirely.
But Obama’s failure to overcome an intransigent House of Representatives even before his thrashing makes his loss of the Senate doubly debilitating and the race to fill the power vacuum ever more pressing. In an era when even his foreign policy is likely to be constrained by the need to keep Congress on side, America and the world will be watching carefully to see who emerges as the next putative commander-in-chief.
So while the two-party system is unlikely to break down any time soon, the underlying battle for the White House in 2016 may not really be between Democrats and Republicans but between continuity and change.
On the one hand, there will be candidates such as Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie with a familiar brand of centrist politics who are likely to contrast their experience and managerial competence with the perceived failures of Barack Obama to govern effectively.
On the other hand, there may be a clutch of more radical voices on the left and the right, such as Paul, Cruz and Warren, who rather would blow it up and start again.
As the rest of the world watches to see who will emerge in charge of its remaining superpower, it may recognise a very familiar set of political dynamics at play.
PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS?
Rand Paul, Republican senator, 51
A former ophthalmologist turned senator for Kentucky, Paul presents himself as a Washington outsider. But he also comes from a dynasty of his own, inheriting much of his political following from his libertarian father Ron Paul, a former congressman who stood as an independent presidential candidate and sought the Republican nomination twice before. Rand is less extreme but is disliked by many in the Republican mainstream who regard him as isolationist on foreign policy. He has aggressively courted the youth vote on civil liberties with campaigns against government surveillance.
A former ophthalmologist turned senator for Kentucky, Paul presents himself as a Washington outsider. But he also comes from a dynasty of his own, inheriting much of his political following from his libertarian father Ron Paul, a former congressman who stood as an independent presidential candidate and sought the Republican nomination twice before. Rand is less extreme but is disliked by many in the Republican mainstream who regard him as isolationist on foreign policy. He has aggressively courted the youth vote on civil liberties with campaigns against government surveillance.
Jeb Bush, Republican, 61
It is now “more than likely” that the former Florida governor will run in 2016, according to his son, George P Bush, who last week won office in Texas as land commissioner. The brother of George W Bush left the governor’s office in 2006, since when the Republicans have lurched further to the right. His Mexican-born wife of 40 years, Columba, has a more benign view of immigration than most in the Republican party. A fluent Spanish speaker, Bush could connect with parts of the country few other Republicans can reach, while the family name will guarantee a huge campaign fund.
It is now “more than likely” that the former Florida governor will run in 2016, according to his son, George P Bush, who last week won office in Texas as land commissioner. The brother of George W Bush left the governor’s office in 2006, since when the Republicans have lurched further to the right. His Mexican-born wife of 40 years, Columba, has a more benign view of immigration than most in the Republican party. A fluent Spanish speaker, Bush could connect with parts of the country few other Republicans can reach, while the family name will guarantee a huge campaign fund.
Elizabeth Warren, Democratic senator, 65
The former Harvard law professor may have only been elected to the Senate two years ago but generates similar excitement among some Democrats as that other law academic turned novice senator, Barack Obama. Unfortunately she has also been adamant she doesn’t seek higher office and her fearsome reputation for taking on big business as a consumer advocate could limit fundraising potential if she does. She is nevertheless one of few senators with a popular following outside Washington.
The former Harvard law professor may have only been elected to the Senate two years ago but generates similar excitement among some Democrats as that other law academic turned novice senator, Barack Obama. Unfortunately she has also been adamant she doesn’t seek higher office and her fearsome reputation for taking on big business as a consumer advocate could limit fundraising potential if she does. She is nevertheless one of few senators with a popular following outside Washington.
Ted Cruz, Republican senator, 43
Like his home state of Texas, Cruz is a larger-than-life figure, attracting constant attention in Washington through fierce criticism of Obama and stunts including an all-night Senate speech against the president’s health reforms that have also pitched him against Republican senate leader Mitch McConnnell. Closest to the social conservatives and religious right who are still a major force in the party, this son of a Cuban immigrant also vies with Rand Paul for the support of the Tea Party movement and would be the party’s first Latino nominee if successful in the 2014 primaries.
Like his home state of Texas, Cruz is a larger-than-life figure, attracting constant attention in Washington through fierce criticism of Obama and stunts including an all-night Senate speech against the president’s health reforms that have also pitched him against Republican senate leader Mitch McConnnell. Closest to the social conservatives and religious right who are still a major force in the party, this son of a Cuban immigrant also vies with Rand Paul for the support of the Tea Party movement and would be the party’s first Latino nominee if successful in the 2014 primaries.
Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state, 67
Clinton will be just a few months younger than Ronald Reagan was when he became president should the former Democratic New York senator succeed in following in her husband’s footsteps. Yet it is George Bush Sr she really hopes to emulate, as his 1988 victory over Michael Dukakis was the last time voters awarded the same party a third consecutive term in office. It will be awkward to promise change to the country again, given that it was Obama’s campaign slogan, but the Republicans’ victory last week could work in her favour: if Washington stays “broken”, it may allow Clinton to ride in and profess herself the antidote the US is crying out for.
Clinton will be just a few months younger than Ronald Reagan was when he became president should the former Democratic New York senator succeed in following in her husband’s footsteps. Yet it is George Bush Sr she really hopes to emulate, as his 1988 victory over Michael Dukakis was the last time voters awarded the same party a third consecutive term in office. It will be awkward to promise change to the country again, given that it was Obama’s campaign slogan, but the Republicans’ victory last week could work in her favour: if Washington stays “broken”, it may allow Clinton to ride in and profess herself the antidote the US is crying out for.
Chris Christie, Republican governor, 52
The governor of New Jersey had been seen as a clear favourite among Republicans thanks to his appeal across party lines and reputation for blunt speaking cemented after Hurricane Sandy. But a scandal in which his staff took revenge on a local politician by closing traffic lanes on a busy bridge into New York confirmed a suspicion among many that he harbours bullying tendencies. If he can banish the memory of that as fast as he is losing weight after bariatric surgery, this larger-than-life candidate could be favourite once more.
The governor of New Jersey had been seen as a clear favourite among Republicans thanks to his appeal across party lines and reputation for blunt speaking cemented after Hurricane Sandy. But a scandal in which his staff took revenge on a local politician by closing traffic lanes on a busy bridge into New York confirmed a suspicion among many that he harbours bullying tendencies. If he can banish the memory of that as fast as he is losing weight after bariatric surgery, this larger-than-life candidate could be favourite once more.
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