Sunday, February 10, 2019

Rejection to Trump grows list of rivals to 2020


The list of suitors for the Democratic Party's vacancy for the 2020 election in the US is long and driven by the central goal of taking President Donald Trump out of the White House. Recent research has shown that for most party voters, defeating Trump is far more important than electing someone with whom they identify ideologically.
As of Friday, 8, at least 23 names had already officially declared themselves, publicly stated their intent to compete or were considered by experts, according to the FiveThirtyEight website. And that number grows every week.
Analist and political science professor at Iona College (New York), Jeanne Zaino explains that it is not yet clear whether the big names of the party, such as Joe Biden, former vice president, and Bernie Sanders, senator, will actually compete, but both are heavily quoted. "What is clear so far is that the Democrats are united by their opposition to Trump and looking for a candidate who can really defeat him," Jeanne told the state.
The match shows a match in tandem with your base. According to ABC News and the Washington Post poll, for 43% of Democratic voters it is much more important to choose someone with real chances of defeating Trump than having a president who shares his ideals.
In a separate poll from Monmouth University, that number is even higher: 56% of respondents said that having a strong candidate against the president is the most important, even if they do not agree with their proposals for government.
In the opinion of the analyst, however, the candidates will need to balance this goal with a positive view on the future of the country. "Campaigning against Trump will not be enough," he says.
So far, according to Jeanne, California Sen. Kamala Harris has had the strongest and best campaign launch, in addition to raising a lot of money: $ 1.5 million just in the first 24 hours after the announcement.
A survey by Quinnipiac University, released last week, showed that enthusiasm for its name (58%) almost hit Biden's (60%) with respondents saying they would be happy if they were victorious by the end of the primary.
The choice of a candidate by the two main American parties follows a long process that will officially begin in January. Elections take place in November next year.
Obama's former vice-lead leads the polls among Democrats, especially among those who consider defeating Trump the most important. He has a wide advantage, especially among whites without college education, an electorate for which Trump had great appeal. The problem with her name, according to Jeanne, is her candidacy to sound like a "back to the past," something that hurt Hillary Clinton in 2016.
"He certainly wants to get in the race again and is a beloved figure in the party, but he comes with a lot of weaknesses that Democrats need to recognize," says the analyst, evaluating that he is not a representative of the "new generation" of Democrats.
This is one of the problems that the opposition will need to equalize. Going too far to the left, where this "new energy" is concentrated, could push voters to Trump.
Former CEO of Starbucks Howard Schultz, old Democrat, plays with this fear. He said recently that if the party leans too far to the left in the primaries, it considers going out to the race as an independent candidate, which could split the Democrats and favor Trump. Independents do not win the US presidency, analysts say, but they are capable of messing up the election race.

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