Can the US really invade Venezuela?

Representatives of the US government gave more obvious signs this week about the possibility of military action in the South American country.

The United States has given new impetus to the threats of military action in Venezuela , now more explicitly than the repeated warnings that "all options are on the table" in Washington's conduct over Caracas.

With Nicolás Maduro still in power in Venezuela, a day after his opponents called for an uprising to topple him, the US faced the crisis in the South American country as a matter of priority.

While the general statement is that Washington prefers Maduro to leave power in a peaceful transition, representatives of the White House summit have in recent days made more open statements about the possibility of a military invasion of Venezuela.

"If military action is possible, that's what the United States will do," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox Business.

He added that "President [ Donald Trump ] will finally have to make that decision and is prepared to do so if necessary."

White House national security adviser John Bolton said the military should be "ready" to work in Venezuela, if necessary.

The Pentagon denied it had orders for military action in that country, but Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan had to cancel a trip to Europe in late April to "effectively coordinate" with the Bolton and Pompeo teams on Venezuela and the border with Mexico, according to a spokesman.

We have done a thorough planning [in relation to Venezuela] so that there is no situation for which we have not prepared ourselves," Shanahan told a congressional hearing.

So does all this mean that Washington is actually closer to sending troops to Venezuela?

Not necessarily, experts say.

Higher pressure

What Washington is seeking is to persuade the Venezuelan military to support opposition leader Juan Guaidó and self-proclaimed interim president, says Alan McPherson, a history professor and director of the Center for Strength and Diplomacy Studies at Temple University in the United States.

"It looks like it did not work yesterday, but I think the State Department is using stronger language in its warnings to pressure more people," McPherson told the BBC.

In McPherson's view, the Pentagon is reluctant about military intervention in Venezuela, but Trump can do so despite the important consequences that this might have on the Latin American agenda - such as the accusation, by allied countries in the region, that intervention would be illegal.

In fact, the highest-ranking US military, Gen. Joseph Dunford, said the Pentagon is focused on gathering information about Venezuela through its intelligence services.

According to the Washington Post, the issue caused friction between the Pentagon and John Bolton's team. Last week, Gen. Paul Selva, the second-ranking military man in the country, would have been furious with Bolton's advisers, who pressed him for military action in Venezuela.

The US has sought to weaken Maduro by economic sanctions and by forming a coalition of dozens of countries, including Brazil, which recognizes Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela and qualifies Maduro as dictator.

Washington also called on the Venezuelan military to support Guaido.

But Maduro remains in power amid a huge political and economic crisis, with the support of the top commanders of the Venezuelan Armed Forces. Russia and China also support his government.

This seems to thwart the US, which analysts say could lead to breaches in the coalition around Guaidó depending on which direction to take.

Because of these risks, Pompeo's or Bolton's statements have "vague" terms about when or how a military action would take place, says McPherson.

"I do not think they're lying," he says, "but they're sending out a warning that they're approaching that decision."

The factor Russia

Washington also seems to be sending firmer rebounds to Russia over Venezuela.

In March, the deployment of Russian military aircraft to Caracas was seen by the Americans as an affront to their influence in the region.

Pompeo said on Tuesday that Maduro was ready to leave Venezuela, but gave up doing so at the request of Russia, which denied that version.

Earlier in the week, Pompeo phoned Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and said that "the intervention of Russia and Cuba is destabilizing Venezuela and US-Russia bilateral relations," a spokesman for the Department of State.

But Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement stating that "Washington's interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state, the threat against its leadership, is a grave violation of international law."

"It is indicated that the continuation of these aggressive steps would be accompanied by more serious consequences," added the Russian text.

Kimberly Marten, a professor at Barnard College at the University of Columbia University and a specialist in international security and Russia, believes that Washington and Moscow seek to establish their positions in Venezuela.

"The danger is that it could reach a point where the United States will either give in or start military operations, which would be a tragedy," Marten told the BBC.

"We can expect both sides to try instead to simply use this move to fuel their claims for a peaceful solution," he adds, "and for cooler heads to prevail."