Coronavirus outbreak may end in China in April, expert says

For epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, peak should occur in mid- or late February, followed by a stabilization and reduction

The coronavirus outbreak is peaking in China this month and could be debeted by April, the government's medical adviser said Tuesday in the latest assessment of an epidemic that is scaring the world.

In an interview with Reuters, 83-year-old epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, who became famous for fighting an epidemic of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) in 2003, wept as he spoke of doctor Li Wenliang, who died last week after being reprimanded for giving the alert.

But Zhong believes the new outbreak will soon decrease because the number of new cases of coronavirus has already begun to fall in some places.

The peak is expected to occur in mid- or late February, followed by stabilization and a reduction, Zhong said, basing its prediction on mathematical models, recent events and government action.'

"I hope this outbreak or this event ends there for April," he said in a hospital round at Guangzhou Medical University, where 11 patients with coronaviruses are being treated.

While his comments may appease some of the global fear with the coronavirus -- which has killed more than 1,000 people and has caused more than 40,000 cases, nearly everyone in China -- Zhong's previous forecast of a spike in the outbreak proved premature.

"We don't know why he's so contagious, so that's a big problem," he added, who helped identify flaws in Chinese emergency reaction systems during the Sars crisis between 2002 and 2003.

He said there has been a gradual reduction in new cases in Guangdong province in the south, where he is, and also in Zhejiang and other parts. "So that's good news for us."

Now that China is taking unprecedented measures to isolate infected regions and limit transmission routes, Zhong applauded the government for banning Wuhan, the epiccenter city of the outbreak, which he said had lost control of the virus at an early stage.

"The local government, the local health authority should have some responsibility for this," he said. "Your work wasn't done right."

The virus is believed to have emerged at a Wuhan seafood market in early December.

Authorities have also been criticized for the harsh treatment given to the late Doctor Li, who was arrested for disclosing the disease before becoming his best-known victim on Friday.

"Most people think he's the hero of China," Zhong said, wiping away tears. "I'm very proud of him, he told people the truth in late December, and then passed away."