War in Ukraine: Is Invasion Going As Russia Expected?
Ukrainian army has resisted Russian invasion
History shows that it is much easier to start a war than to end it.
This is what happened, for example, with the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. And it may be the case with Vladimir Putin's current Russian invasion of Ukraine.
An old axiom says that military planning never survives first contact with the enemy. This appears to be the case for Russian forces.
Ed Arnold, a European security expert at the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), describes Russia's initial attack as "slower than expected"
Military doctrine teaches that, during an invasion, it is best to "advance with overwhelming force." Although Russia has gathered between 150,000 and 190,000 troops on the border, it has not used all of them so far.
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One reason may be the Russian calculation that it may need to use the force in later stages of the invasion. It is normal for the Army to maintain reserves while adjusting plans.
Western officials estimate that the initial attack involved about half of the forces deployed. The operation had a greater degree of difficulty as it involved attacks in several directions.
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Russia also did not use its artillery and aerial bombardments as intensively as expected.
"One key point is that they are facing very tough Ukrainian resistance, which I don't think they expected," says Arnold.
Still, he reckons Russian commanders will quickly adapt to setbacks.
Along the same lines, General Richard Barrons, a former senior military commander in the British Army, says it still looks like the Russians "will secure their military objectives quickly".
For the general, it is very clear that the initial objectives of the Russian offensive are "to dismantle the Ukrainian military, remove the central government and annex a portion of Ukraine, so that it can be absorbed by Russia".
The country appears to have made some progress towards these goals. It advanced, for example, in the south of the country - Russian forces managed to create a land link to Ukraine from Crimea, which they invaded and annexed in 2014.
Arnold describes this as a "modest goal". From that position, however, the soldiers can try to encircle Ukrainian forces defending the east, a region where experienced Ukrainian soldiers have been entrenched and have been fighting Russian-backed separatists for eight years in the region known as the Donbas.
So far, the information is that the soldiers have been fighting valiantly against Russian onslaughts that are trying to break through Ukrainian defense lines in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
This defense would be much more difficult, however, if the Ukrainian soldiers found themselves surrounded. Another relevant point is the fact that a significant portion of Ukraine's armed forces are already involved in combat in this region and will have difficulty repositioning themselves.
Russia has also made significant strides in Kiev. Taking the capital is another central objective, as it is the seat of government and leading the Ukrainian resistance.
Putin wants to replace the democratically elected figure of President Volodymyr Zelensky with a name linked to his own regime. Arnold, a defense expert at Rusi, points out that "anything short of capturing Kiev would not achieve Russia's objectives".
The question now is: how difficult will that be? Russian forces appear to be trying to encircle the city, but are likely to face stiffer resistance the further they advance into the capital.
In urban wars, it is usually the party that is attacked who has the upper hand. Invading forces have more difficulty moving between streets, where buildings and constructions become defensive positions. In this sense, civilians can also become part of the resistance and potential targets.
Urban warfare is the most difficult and bloody for any advancing Army, and requires the most resources.
Building destroyed in bombing in Kiev on Saturday: city remains under Ukrainian control
The Dnieper River forms a natural barrier between eastern and western Ukraine and could become a "limit for exploration" for Russian forces, as Arnold describes it.
If they manage to capture Kiev and the east of the country, in his view, it might be of little benefit to advance westward. Putin can hope, however, that if his forces do take the capital, the resistance will crumble.
But while 190,000 troops may be enough to carry out an invasion, military experts doubt that the force will be enough to occupy Europe's second largest country, with a territorial extension smaller only than Russia's own on the continent.
"If Putin's intention was to occupy the whole of Ukraine with a force of around 150,000 troops, that would only work if he had the consent of the population," says General Barrons, who was the British army's military commander in Iraq.
According to him, although a part of the inhabitants feel close to Russia in the east, any government installed by the Putin regime in the country would find it difficult to govern with the consent of a population of about 44 million people.
While Russia has the strength to eventually defeat Ukraine's army, he adds, the military could be replaced by a "very resilient insurgency". Any expectation by Putin that he can control the entire country "could be a huge miscalculation".
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