Can Ukraine win the war? Ten questions about conflict
Russia continues to face strong resistance from Ukraine, more than a month after the invasion of the country began.
Ukrainian forces have begun attempts to retake some areas of Russia, which it announced this week it would reduce operations around Kiev and the northern city of Chernihiv.
On Saturday (2/4), the interim Defense Minister of Ukraine, Hanna Malyar, said that "the entire Kiev region has been liberated from the invaders".
Meanwhile, four million people have fled Ukraine and a quarter of the country's population is believed to be homeless.
The Russian invasion is now in its sixth week and has failed on major fronts — the Russians have failed to enter Kiev, overthrow the government or take any major city — except Kherson — in the south. Russia destroyed more than it captured. A low return for an expensive raid.
That said, it's too early to predict the outcome here.
We could be at the beginning of a long war. Russia says it will now focus on the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. May have little choice, having failed to make gains elsewhere. But in the future, it may resume trying to capture more territory elsewhere.
Putin's fate is likely tied to the success or failure of the invasion. He can continue to send troops, armor and heavy weapons in the long run.
Russian tank destroyed in Trosyanets, Ukraine
Does the fact that Russia is recruiting in the Middle East show a lack of confidence in the quality of its own forces? (question from David Carter)
Jenny Hill - The Kremlin would never admit this, but there is evidence that at least some of the Russian troops are inexperienced and unprepared for the mission. Recently, the Defense Ministry was forced to admit that — contrary to Putin's claims — recruits were sent to fight in Ukraine.
Moscow claims to have 16,000 "volunteers" from the Middle East, many of whom have fought Islamic State over the past decade, ready to join Russian troops. They may have more experience than some of their Russian counterparts. And some experts say they would likely be more skilled in the kind of urban combat needed to take over cities and towns.
Some also argue that they would be less reluctant to attack or kill Ukrainian civilians (many Russians have close ties to Ukraine and regard the people there as "brothers"), and that their reputation for brutality can have a psychological effect on Ukrainian troops. .
The Kremlin supposedly knows all this, which is why it was so keen to publicize its access to Middle Eastern fighters — although it has yet to officially confirm that it will actually send them.
To what extent will unexploded ordnance remain a problem for Ukraine after the war? Is there a possibility that large areas will be deemed inaccessible as a result? (question from Robbie)
Orla Guerin - Unfortunately, yes, as so often happens in conflicts, the risk to human life will remain long after the war is over.
The danger comes not only from unexploded ordnance, but also from land mines. They could kill for years to come, unless or until mine clearance organizations can clear frontline areas. I saw these organizations working after other wars. Your work is meticulous and time-consuming.
Before the start of the invasion, there was already a war in the east of the country between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian government. It started in 2014 and has been dragging on ever since.
As we covered the front lines of the conflict in late January and February, we had to carefully circumvent many minefields. At that time, the snow was melting, turning the ground to mud. Under these conditions, mines can easily change their original location (which may have been marked on maps or surrounded).
Currently, in the city of Irpin, north of Kiev, the Ukrainian army says there is a high risk of death from mines in the streets.
Is it becoming more or less likely that the people in Russia will overthrow Putin or there will be more civil unrest, the longer the conflict lasts? (asked by Damien Fieldhouse, Somerset)
Jenny Hill - Less likely.
The Kremlin is tough on those who oppose the war, and many Russians who think so have fled. Street protests, which were almost daily, have subsided.
State opinion polls should be viewed with some skepticism, but they consistently show the (increasing) majority support for Putin and his "special military operation".
Given that most independent Russian media outlets have been blocked or forced to close, there are few alternatives to state media, which cling to the Kremlin narrative. It says that Russian troops only entered Ukraine to defend the Russian-speaking population from attacks and "genocide" perpetrated by Ukrainian nationalists and neo-Nazis.
If you only watch state TV, you may well conclude that this is indeed an honorable and necessary operation to save Russian speakers and Russia itself from an aggressive Ukraine that, with the help of the United States, is developing biological weapons and is desperate to get its hands on nuclear weapons.
Sanctions are starting to have a noticeable effect as prices rise, but the Kremlin frames this as another example of Western aggression. At this stage, it is difficult to see any public dissatisfaction evolving into a revolution.
Who will pay to rebuild the damage inflicted on Ukraine's infrastructure — let alone the human cost? (asked by Steve Sandercott, Rugby)
Orla Guerin - The biggest cost is human and it is increasing every day. The verified number of civilian deaths, according to the United Nations, is about 1,200 people, but the real number will be much higher. Add to that the fact that 4 million Ukrainians had to flee and become refugees in other countries.
There is also vast physical destruction, in cities and towns across the country. No place has suffered more than Mariupol in the south, where we spent 10 days counting down to the invasion.
Back then, it was a bustling port city, with trendy cafes, busy restaurants and families strolling through the parks. Satellite images of Mariupol now show mostly scorched earth, with 90% of residential buildings damaged or destroyed.
About 5,000 people are known to have been killed in this city alone, according to Ukrainian officials. They say the actual death toll could be double that.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky promised to restore "all houses, all streets and all cities". He says Russia will have to "learn the word 'reparations'" and pay the full cost.
Ukraine will certainly want reparations to be a key part of any deal made to end the war. Whether Russia pays — and how much — will depend on who has the upper hand when the deal is done. Theoretically, Russian assets abroad, frozen by the G7 countries, could be used to help pay the bill.
If there is a peace deal, how would Ukraine/Russia deal with Crimea, the regions taken by Russia in Donbas last month, and areas that have been controlled by Russian-backed rebels in recent years? (asked by Ryan McGauley)
Jenny Hill - We know that Putin wants the world to recognize Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, as Russian. During talks earlier this week, the Ukrainian side suggested that Crimea's status be negotiated over 15 years as part of an overall peace deal, although it is difficult to see Putin agree to that.
He also wants the international community to recognize (as he did) the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent (although that basically means "controlled by Russia").
Given that the Kremlin's current plan is to intensify its efforts in eastern Ukraine to "liberate" the entire Donbas region, we can assume that Putin intends to try to take — and hold — the region.
We saw the Ukrainian military being very effective in certain areas. What prevents the military from destroying the Russian artillery that is bombing their cities? (question from Paul Ackrill)
Orla Guerin - Independent military experts point to a possible factor. They say Russia is firing artillery from tracked vehicles, which can quickly change location after firing. This makes them harder to target.
Ukrainian forces told us that they are also restricted because of the presence of civilians in built-up areas from which Russia is shooting. They don't want to risk killing their own people while attacking Russian artillery. This has been a problem in cities like Bucha, on the outskirts of Kiev, where some civilians have remained despite the presence of Russian forces.
Around Kiev, Ukrainian forces managed to repel the Russians, limiting the scope for artillery use. As the city center is out of reach, Putin's men were unable to bomb Kiev as they did in Mariupol, and instead resorted to air strikes.
However, the Ukrainian air defenses have been working well. Several times here in Kiev we hear a crash as a Russian missile is dropped — sometimes with casualties on the ground.
In general, Ukraine has been asking for more and better air defense systems to help contain the Russian threat. And the constant demand here is for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to enforce a no-fly zone. We found civilians fleeing the Irpin bombing who begged NATO to "shut the skies". However, few here believe that there is any chance of that happening, because of Western fears of getting involved in a wider war.
Ukrainian soldiers prepare for battle east of Kiev
Putin has imposed huge restrictions on the press in Russia, but is there a possibility that the news reported by Ukraine — for example, the death toll of soldiers and civilians — is not entirely accurate? (question from Sarah, Oxford)
Orla Guerin - Both sides are waging an information war in addition to the war on the battlefields.
In any conflict, information from either party to the war—about civilian deaths, captured territory, or killed enemy soldiers—must be viewed with caution.
This is especially true now of Russia — which is trying to ensure that its people only get the Kremlin's version of events. He still refuses to admit that he invaded Ukraine and refers only to his "special military operation".
We prioritize first-hand reporting, which is why the BBC has teams in so many parts of Ukraine — collecting testimonies from people in the field, including civilians, medical staff, local authorities and the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine is recognizing that it has suffered losses, and BBC teams in different cities have been able to report on the funerals of Ukrainian soldiers killed in battle. We cannot yet know whether the full extent of the losses is being disclosed.
Are there anti-war Russians? Are they safe? (ask from Roanna, Brighton)
Jenny Hill — Yes, there are, but it's hard to gauge how widespread this dissent really is.
Speaking out against the war — or even telling the truth about what Putin continues to insist is just a "special military operation" — could result in a criminal conviction and possibly a prison sentence.
More than 15,000 people were reported to have been detained for participating in almost daily street protests during the first three weeks of the invasion.
Most independent journalists and many Russians who oppose the invasion have fled the country to places like Turkey, Armenia and Georgia. The Kremlin calls them traitors, and some of those left behind have become targets of abuse or attacks.
We are seeing the point of view of the Ukrainian soldiers on the front line, but is it possible to get the perspective of the Russian side? Are you prevented by the Russians from informing and speaking with Russian troops on Ukrainian soil? (question from Robert, Bishop's Stortford)
Jenny Hill - I can't answer for my colleagues currently in Ukraine, but the Kremlin tightly controls the flow of information back to Russia.
The Ministry of Defense issues frequent updates that consistently emphasize the success of the "special military operation". Russian soldiers are banned from using smartphones, and Moscow has made it a crime to publish information that discredits the Russian military or to spread what the Kremlin would consider fake news about it.
There is an independent organization that aims to help the families of the military to obtain information about them. However, we were recently told that they are under considerable pressure from the authorities to stop their activities.




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