The day the Earth will reach 8 billion inhabitants, according to the UN
November 15th, 2022. This is the date on which the Earth will reach the 8 billion inhabitants mark, according to an estimate made by the United Nations.
The global population will have a total population of 8.5 billion in 2030; 9.7 billion in 2050; and 10.4 billion in 2100.
Brazil — which in 1990 had the fifth largest population in the world — arrives in 2022 as the seventh most populous: we are 215 million. And we will continue to grow throughout this century.
By 2050, the UN projects that Brazil will have a population of 231 million and will continue to be the seventh most populous country in the world, but with differences in the countries ahead (see the list at the bottom of this article).
Another relevant fact is that next year India should surpass China as the most populous country on the planet – both currently have around 1.4 billion inhabitants. China has approximately 14 million more people than India, according to the UN, and could see its population decline as early as next year.
One of the main factors in the population increase in recent years is that we are living longer. Global life expectancy has been rising in recent decades. In 2019, the world's life expectancy was 72.8 years – an increase of almost nine years compared to 1990. According to the UN, this expectation is expected to continue rising and reach 77.2 years in 2050.
Despite population growth, the fertility rate (the average number of children each woman has) has been falling worldwide. In 2021, each woman was giving birth on average to 2.3 babies, compared to five in 1950. The world fertility rate is expected to fall further, reaching 2.1 by 2050.
The world population continues to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past. In 2020, population growth has dropped below 1% for the first time since 1950. The UN report indicates that the world population will reach a peak of 10.4 billion in 2080 and that this level will remain stable until 2100, when then it should start to fall.
Some regions of the planet — such as Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe, North America, East and Southeast Asia, and Central and South Asia — are expected to reach their maximum population size before 2100, already starting the process of population decline before the turn of the century.
Next year, India will overtake China to become the most populous country in the world.
The UN attributes much — two-thirds — of the population growth predicted for 2050 to the current age structure of the population, which is considered young. Even if governments implement programs to try to reduce the fertility rate, the population would continue to grow because of this structure inherited from the past, according to the report.
Below are four UN predictions about population changes over this century:
1. More seniors in the world; more elderly men
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The elderly will make up an increasing share of societies. Currently, people over 65 years old represent 10% of the population. By 2050, this percentage will rise to 16%. By 2050, there will be twice as many seniors over 65 as children under five.
The reason for this, according to the UN, is the combination of increasing life expectancy and falling fertility rates.
There should be a reduction in the percentage of women among the elderly. Women have a higher life expectancy than men and represent 55.7% of the population over 65 years old today. But by 2050, that percentage should drop to 54.5%.
The life expectancy of women is higher than that of men, according to the UN report. Women live an average of 5.4 years longer than men. In Latin America, the difference is even greater: women live 7 years longer than men—the largest recorded gender discrepancy in the world.
In the report, the UN warns countries to adapt their retirement and public health programs to deal with this new scenario with more elderly people.
In parts of Latin America, Asia and Africa, the UN notes that the working age population (25-64) is still growing, which gives these countries an opportunity to benefit from the so-called "demographic bonus" — when the working age population grows and the number of children and elderly people who depend on workers or the state for a living is low. Demographers consider this time crucial to take a "developmental leap".
This is the case in Brazil — the working age population is at the highest level in the historical series and the dependency ratio of children and the elderly is at the lowest.
However, the UN warns that it is necessary to invest in education and health to optimize these gains.
2. Immigration is the engine of population growth in rich countries
In rich countries, immigration now accounts for a larger share of population growth than births.
Between 2000 and 2020, immigration to these rich countries increased the population by 80.5 million. The number of new births — excluding deaths — accounts for 66.5 million.
Large migration movements influence the population growth of countries
In the coming decades, immigration will continue to be the engine of population growth in high-income countries.
Already some countries in the world will have a population drop of 1% or more between 2022 and 2050 precisely because of immigration. This is because of low birth rates and, in some cases, because there are many people leaving these nations. This is the case in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine.
3. Problems for the poorest
According to the United Nations, rapid population growth will be one of the challenges for the sustainable development of societies — especially for the education sector and in poorer countries. The fastest population growth will occur in the world's 46 least developed countries. According to the UN, many of these countries are also the most vulnerable to global warming.
Asia is now the most populous continent in the world — but much of future population growth will come from sub-Saharan Africa. More than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
4. Impacts of covid-19
The covid pandemic was the main factor that brought down life expectancy in the world in recent years - from 72.8 years in 2019 to 71 years in 2021.
In Latin America, during the same period, life expectancy dropped by three years. In countries like Bolivia, Botswana, Lebanon, Mexico, Oman and Russia, life expectancy dropped by four years between 2019 and 2021.
Another impact of covid on demography was the restriction of mobility in the world in this period, which made migratory movements difficult. But the UN said it was difficult to estimate what the effect on population growth was.
5. Most populous in the past, present and future
The UN report lists the world's most populous countries in 1990 and 2022, and a projection for 2050.
Most populous countries in the world in 1990:
- China: 1.144 billion people
- India: 861 million
- USA: 246 million
- Indonesia: 181 million
- Brazil : 149 million
- Russia: 148 million
- Japan: 123 million
- Pakistan: 114 million
- Bangladesh: 106 million
- Nigeria: 94 million
Most populous countries in the world in 2022:
- China: 1.426 billion
- India: 1.412 billion
- US: 337 million
- Indonesia: 275 million
- Pakistan: 234 million
- Nigeria: 216 million
- Brazil : 215 million
- Bangladesh: 170 million
- Russia: 145 million
- Mexico: 127 million
Most populous countries in the world in 2050 (projection):
- India: 1.668 billion
- China: 1.317 billion
- USA: 375 million
- Nigeria: 375 million
- Pakistan: 366 million
- Indonesia: 317 million
- Brazil : 231 million
- Congo: 215 million
- Ethiopia: 213 million
- Bangladesh: 204 million
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