War between Russia and Ukraine completes 1 year without perspective of end

This Friday (2/24), the conflict enters the milestone of one year. Experts point out that there are risks of new developments, such as the involvement of other countries or a nuclear threat

Exactly one year ago, on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the territory of Ukraine. Since then, the estimate is that the conflict in Eastern Europe has already left about 300,000 dead, including Ukrainian, Russian soldiers and civilians. Recently, the war has escalated, through the sending of aid to the Ukrainian army by the United States and Germany, and also by the speeches of Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. After a year, the conflict seems far from over.

One of the explanations for the origin of the war is the dissatisfaction of the Russian president with the North Atlantic Organization (NATO). The military alliance was founded in 1949, in the context of the Cold War, to prevent the expansion of the then Soviet Union (USSR) — which also created its own organization at the time: the extinct Warsaw Pact. For the Russian head of state, NATO has "imperialist ambitions" and wants to approach Russia's borders.

According to the professor of international relations at the University of Brasilia (UnB) Roberto Goulart Menezes, Putin's argument is plausible, but Ukraine may decide to join NATO, as it is a sovereign country. "With the end of the Soviet Union, the question was what would be the direction of NATO. And NATO began to look for a new reason for being. From 1991, this alliance expanded to Eastern Europe and began to incorporate the countries that were previously part of the Warsaw Pact", he explains.

"Russia, between the 1990s and 2000s, had a good dialogue with NATO, but it has always highlighted its concern about Ukraine's entry into NATO, as it could lead to the 'nuclearization' of Ukrainian territory, that is, to bring nuclear weapons to an extensive border that Ukraine has with Russia", added the expert.

Latvian President Egils Levits (left), Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova (2L), US President Joe Biden (3R), Polish President Andrzej Duda (2R) and other participants leave the podium after posing for a group photo at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw on February 22, 2023ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP
This photograph taken on February 22, 2023 shows the inside of a church, which was used by Russian troops as a makeshift hospital, in Mala Komyshuvakha village, Kharkiv region, amid Russia's military invasion of UkraineANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP
A wrecked Russian tank stands in a snow-covered wheat field in the Kharkiv region on February 22, 2023, amid Russia's military invasion of UkraineANGELA WEISS / AFP
Manifestantes se reúnem do lado de fora da sede das Nações Unidas quando o primeiro aniversário da guerra na Ucrânia se aproxima, na cidade de Nova York em 23 de fevereiro de 2023DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP
Esta fotografia tirada em 23 de fevereiro de 2023 mostra uma vista de edifícios residenciais danificados, que foram destruídos durante um ataque em Borodyanka, em meio à invasão militar da Rússia na UcrâniaYASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP
O presidente russo, Vladimir Putin, assiste a um concerto patriótico dedicado ao próximo Dia do Defensor da Pátria no estádio Luzhniki em Moscou em 22 de fevereiro de 2023NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA / AFP

Another point is that the conflict has a historical origin. That's because both Russia and Ukraine were formed from the medieval Slavic state of Kievan Rus. Therefore, Putin claims that Russians and Ukrainians are "one people", while Ukraine claims recognition of its sovereignty and independence. Retired professor and master in international relations, Alexandre Marchchenko, says that his grandmother always identified herself as Russian, even though she was born in Kiev. "When she was caught speaking in Ukrainian, she had warnings," he says.

far from the end

Roberto Goulart points out that the war is far from over because there has not yet been a feasible peace proposal. "President Putin placed conditions for Ukraine, in a likely peace process, that were simply unacceptable and he has not withdrawn them until now," he points out. Conditions include the Ukrainian surrender and the acceptance of approximately 1/5 of the territory to be annexed to Russia. According to the professor, these conditioning factors violate the sovereignty of Ukraine.