Saturday, March 17, 2018

Strong economy or chaos in the world: what counts for Trump?

With nearly fourteen months in office, US President Donald Trump has yet to conquer anything in the world he can boast. His scheduled meeting with North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un in May has made no headway in talks over the past few decades.
Its foreign policy has no axis or continuity. Diplomacy, often tied to the State Department, has given way to the White House tweets and untimely statements. An example of this was the resignation of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson last week. "The State Department lost its pre-eminence in international affairs. has been more the rule than the exception that the White House National Security Adviser and the ambassador to the United Nations talk about foreign policy, "says Ambassador Rubens Ricupero, advisor to the Brazilian Center for International Relations 
But failures around the world will not necessarily have a negative political impact on Trump. The issue of foreign policy is not very weighty. "In the presidential campaign, Trump voters were not sure he would be able to win something, but at least he would try," says American Enterprise Institute's American expert on public opinion Karlyn Bowman.
What counts, in general, is the economy. And she has favored Trump. GDP has grown more than 2 percent a year since 2009. In January, the IMF even raised its forecast for world GDP growth from 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent, driven by tax cuts to the US tax reform. His promises to bar immigrants or raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum have not yet had negative consequences. In the first two months of the year, 276 000 jobs were added per month, up from 182 000 a month last year. Since taking office, unemployment has fallen from 4.7% to 4.1%, a level that economists consider to be full employmentAll those who seek a vacancy find it without much difficulty and the economy is at its full capacity. The amount paid per hour worked increased by 3% over twelve months.
Out of every ten Americans, seven consider the economy to be in good or excellent shape, according to research conducted by the American University of Quinnipiac . "The economy is doing well because of all the stimulus that former President Obama and the Federal Reserve chairman pushed into the economy as of 2009," says Richard Parker, a professor of economics at Harvard. Data from the same survey indicate that only 41% of Americans blame Obama for this growth, while 48% give Trump credit.
About 75% of them rate their financial situation as good or excellent and 51% approve of how Trump is dealing with the economy.
The question is whether Trump will be able to maintain this growth for quite some time. For Parker, protectionist measures and threats of mass deportation of illegal immigrants could put growth at risk.
"The question then will be how fast the economy will grow with Trump. He thinks he can grow 3 to 4 percent a year, I believe he can grow from 2 to 2.5 percent in view of his measures, "says Parker.

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